Rice is not only central to Thailand’s economy and dietary consumption but also plays a
significant role in global food security. Northeast Thailand, in particular, is a principal region for
rice cultivation. However, with the mounting concerns of climate change, it becomes paramount
to understand the interplay between regional weather patterns and rice yields, aiming to develop
effective adaptive agricultural strategies. The current study aimed to fill the research gap by investigating
an optimal copula for the spatial dependence of rice production and related meteorological
variables in this area. The objective of this study is to understand how rice production in different
areas relates to each other in order to improve farming practices and address challenges such as
suitable weather. To achieve this goal, we apply three families of copulas—elliptical, Archimedean,
and extreme—to analyze crop and meteorological variables across the watershed in the northeastern
region of Thailand. With a data foundation extending from 1981 to 2021 from the Regional Office
of Agricultural Economics Sector 4, Thailand, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of the
spatial dynamics driving rice production across twenty provinces in Northeast Thailand. Using a
piecewise linear model, we dissected rice yield trends, revealing distinct slopes in production and
yield across various periods. The analysis leaned on elliptical, Archimedean, and extreme copula families,
using the maximum likelihood estimation to discern marginal distribution residuals. Through
rigorous bootstrap goodness-of-fit tests and cross-validation, the most appropriate copula for each
province was identified. Key findings demonstrate pronounced spatial interdependencies in rice
yields, with the Frank copula prominently capturing the product relationship between provinces
such as Maha Sarakham and Roi-Et. Conversely, the Clayton copula better characterized regions
such as Srisaket and Ubon Ratchathani. Moreover, the results underscore the considerable influence
of meteorological factors, notably rainfall and temperature, on rice production, especially in regions
like Ubon Ratchathani. In distilling these multifaceted relationships, the study charts a pathway for
crafting sustainable, localized agricultural strategies. As the world grapples with climate change’s
ramifications, the insights from this research stand crucial, offering direction for fostering resilience,
adaptation, and optimizing rice productivity across Thailand’s diverse agrarian landscapes.